How a Poker Boss Bluffs Using Ace-King (Analysis)

This is among the most frequent queries asked by ID PRO PKV GAMES players that are only beginning.

If you are a seasoned player, you are aware there’s a large issue with this query: too little information. The rankings, preflop actions, flop, pile sizes…each these significant particulars and much more are all missing.

And although it’s likely to answer the query normally (since Doug Polk failed here with this site ), the addition of information is needed to provide a comprehensive response.

Sometimes your very best move using a lost ace-king is to just fold and check. Other instances your very best move would be to conduct a significant bang for each your chips. Now’s hand is a good illustration of this latter.

This continues our series where we examine large baskets performed by Fried throughout a current $2.50/5 Zoom semester. Have a look at part 1 here and component two here. The Whole session was recorded and commented by Fried for associates of their Upswing Lab to research.

With no additional ado, let’s jump in the hand!

Preflop
At $2.50/$5 PokerStars, the participant in middle position raises to $15. The player on the button 3-bets to $40, to that Fried responds by 4-betting his A♥ K♥ to 120 from the little blind. The first raiser eliminates this way, the participant on the buttoncalls, and we visit some flop heads-up.
Preflop Analysis
Fried’s 4-betting array must include just the super-premium palms (QQ+, AK) as:

Both his competitors’ ranges are very tight (especially SDMax).
He will be forced to play out of position for the rest of the hand.
SDMax’s calling range should be made up of pocket pairs from around 66 and higher, some suited connector type hands, and AQs. He should also elect to call with the strongest hands in the game (QQ+, AK) at some frequency to strengthen and protect his calling range.

The bet size the solver likes using here is intriguing.

Typically, 25% pot-sized c-bets are preferred in 4-bet pots. However, when given four different bet sizing options (ranging from 25% pot to 66% pot), the solver elects to bet 50% pot.

It’s hard to say for sure why the solver prefers a relatively large size here, but it is likely because Fried’s range is so strong that he wants to put maximum pressure on SDMax’s many marginal hands.

In any case, Fried checks, which can also be fine depending on how he builds the rest of his range. (Since Fried is a boss, he probably builds it well.) In terms of expected value (EV), checking is only a hair worse than betting with a difference of just 0.02 big blinds.

Versus SDMax’s very small ~20% pot bet, the solver decides to raise all-in. This is an amazing and unexpected decision, but it makes sense for a few reasons:

Fried’s hand has a good amount of equity when called.
AK blocks SDMax’s value range (AA, KK, AQ).
AK doesn’t really have any showdown value given how tight SDMax’s range is to begin with.
The solver check-raises with these few combinations of AK suited to balance the QQ combinations that are also check-raised.

Turn

The turn is dealt 7♠ and the board is now Q♣ 8♥ 7♦ 7♠.

The action goes check-check.

Turn Analysis

Fried’s check is procedural — he should check with his entire range after check-calling on the flop.

SDMax’s check, on the other hand, gives up some information about the hand that he has. His range is now weighted more towards either a strong made hand, specifically a full house (which can confidently let a free card come off), or a medium strength hand like 99-JJ (which want to get to showdown).

That is not to say that he can’t possibly still have a strong but somewhat vulnerable hand like AA, KK, AQs or KQs, but they are less likely.

River

The river is dealt a 4♣ and the board is now Q♣ 8♥ 7♦ 7♠ 4♣.

River Analysis

Fried is a peculiar situation because his opponent’s hand almost certainly beats his ace-king high, so by checking he is essentially waving the white flag. There are 2 ways you can approach such a situation:

The theoretical approach is based on your own range. If you take this approach, the main questions you ask yourself are:

What is my value range?

How many bluff combos do I need in order to balance it?
Which hands make the best bluffs? (In Frieds’ hand instance, AK is the just potential bluff)
The pragmatic approach only revolves around whether the bluff will likely be rewarding. If you choose this strategy, you have to use pot odds to work out how frequently your bluff should function to gain, then choose whether your opponent is going to fold that proportion of the scope.

In this hand Fried’s drive dangers $345 to acquire the 355 large blind bud, meaning that his bluff should operate…

69 / (69 + 71) * 100 = 49.3percent of the Moment

It’s possible for you to narrow towards one or another based on how much information you’ve got on your competition. With no reads, you’re more likely to lean to the theoretical perspective, with notes, you’re more likely to lean towards the side.

Fried made a decision to see this place from a side and maintained that his push by stating that when he does not bluff with this particular mix, he isn’t bluffing whatsoever, and moved for this.

The solver isn’t helpful in this situation as it takes that line.

Last Thoughts

What should you believe SDMax folded about the lake? Reduce your figure from the comments below!

This finishes the series assessing large pots played with Upswing trainer and mid-stakes juggernaut Fried Meulders at a current $2.50/$5 semester.

(If you are a part of this Upswing Lab and need to observe this session in complete, visit the Play & Explain segment of the class and see the 3-part show which began on September 27th.)

We’ve seen him utilize some tiny stakes so as to place his rival in a challenging place and extract maximum value. We also have seen him consider large risks so as to push his rival from greater handson. Each one these choices have been strong at great and worst in the best, and he’s favorable results to show for this.

Understanding these huge containers work will allow you to acquire much more cash in the tables, and now I hope I was successful at projecting some light on them.